Advice for programmers

`1:10:51`

Hugely. Because just because I have this disposition, I'm keenly aware that that's not evenly distributed, that not everyone sits with this position and this optimism for the future. But I do think I wanna separate things a little bit. I think you're gonna have a hard time coping with the new reality if the only thing you loved about programming was the mechanical bits of putting the right logical constructs together to produce something other people told you to produce. Because that mechanical process is under threat. If you are, as you just mentioned, excited about building things, I don't think you're under threat at all. In fact, I think there's a great argument for us needing far more builders than what we have now, and if you look at the employment stats, it's fuzzy. It's not clear what's gonna happen at all. Some stats actually show an increase in openings because the advent of AI is so dramatically lowering the price of programs that people want a lot more programs. This is the classic, the Jevons paradox, that says when the price of something goes down, there's gonna be more demand for it. And this is the example of the ATMs too. When the ATM originally came, a lot of bank tellers were very afraid for their job because suddenly there was a machine that could dispense money from people's account.

Well, what the ATMs did was lower the price of a branch, and suddenly banks could afford to open a lot more branches, and we ended up with more bank tellers than we did before. Now, none of this is guaranteed. There are also moments where things do change. The vast majority of people worked in the fields up until the late 1800s, and then suddenly we got mechanized- harvesting tools, and we did not need human labor with a hoe and an ox out there. We had mechanical tools to do that for us. In that moment, are there people who were threatened that their job and their livelihood was at stake? Yes. Was that a reasonable thing to feel threatened about? Yes. The Luddites smashing the weaving machines-... in England had the same thing. And I think maybe that's the better parallel than people working the fields because these were actually highly skilled professionals doing a job that they liked on rather favorable conditions, not slaving outside in the sun all day. But where we live now, would we still like for clothing to be this heavily constrained resource? Like, what if this T-shirt was $400? I mean, okay, then I'd have two. Well, my wardrobe probably looks like I have two. But I think the general progress of mankind depends on productivity improvements. And what are productivity improvements? This is very important because in the abstract, I think everyone says, "Yay, productivity. That's good." What did you think, this was all just vibes? No.

Productivity means fewer people to do the same number or the same job. Now, the amount of job you want done may increase, and therefore you get more people, but it also may not. There may be pockets where a company just needs a certain set of fixed tasks done, and suddenly they can do them with a 10th the number of people. This, by the way, could... is tragic and difficult in the moment for the individual being laid off. It's also amazing for the economy at large. Suddenly you've freed up these resources who can now go do more productive things. This is how the whole economy evolves and improves and how we get growth, and growth is good. I think this is the other thing to make a strong defense for, that growth in general is a good thing. We do not want to wind the clock back to 1920 or 1950. We should be excited about the fact that we've discovered new technology that allows us to do vastly more. And while some of the tasks that may be taken over by AI were tasks that humans were excited to do, and they're just no longer economically viable, a lot of the tasks were just drudgery. This is certainly true of my programming. There were moments of programming I thought were amazing. These were the moments that produced that state of flow we talked about last time, and they were ecstatic. How often did they happen out of the course of a year? If you took your average programmer, how much time out of 2,000 hours at the job did that person spend in a flow state? 100? 200? 25?

I think all those answers could be plausible for someone. And taking that drudgery, handing it over to machines, that is the history of civilization.

`1:16:16`

A lot of it is gone in a lot of domains, and the rest of it may be gone very soon. So that's where some of the romanticism also comes in... because pain in the moment is difficult. It's hard. It's annoying. Pain in the rear view mirror is accomplishment, proud, learning, steps forward, all the things, right? So we encompass all of this as part of the human experience, that we hate pain in the moment, but we cherish it when it's five minutes past and we don't remember the hardship. We just remember the progress.

`1:17:11`

Don't try to anticipate anything. You will literally go crazy. Because even the smartest brains in the business cannot anticipate what two model hops from here is going to look like. It's an absolute waste of time, and you will develop an AI psychosis trying to deduce what two years from now is gonna look like. Focus on right now, and right now is the most incredible time to be into computers. You can make them do the most amazing things if you lean in. If you maybe for a hot moment force yourself to learn where the state of the art is, I double dog dare you not to get excited about what's possible.

`1:17:59`

I think it's optional actually to build publicly. I think it's nice to do because then you get to be part of a community, and there's some camaraderie in open source. Not some camaraderie. There's an enormous amount of camaraderie. Open source is an incredible source of community and camaraderie, and it's also a great way to stem some of that personal existential dread. If you're amongst other humans, you can get infected with good forms of mind viruses, exciting forms of mind viruses, the ones that tell you that it's all gonna be okay, and the future looks bright, and if we build a bunch of things together, we can do things none of us ever dreamed we could do. I was just talking to Ryan Hughes, who's been my main partner on Omarchy almost since day one, and we were literally talking about yesterday how when We started on this journey together. Our ambitions were very modest. We're just like, "Can we get this distro to not crash at 3:00 AM because of an Arch package that just got pushed out outside of our control? That would be amazing. Then it'd be great." Now we're leaning back and thinking, "How can we take over the world? How can we make Omarchy go to Mars? How can we do everything we've ever dreamed of?" And that level of ambition inflation is partly because things have gotten better with agents, but hugely also because we've surrounded ourselves with others excited about the same journey.

And if you're just sitting in your little isolated cave worrying about the future, yeah, you're gonna go a little nuts. I think if we learned anything during COVID is that people will go nuts sitting in their little cave inside by themselves worrying about what's gonna happen. That is indistinguishable from depression, ruminating endlessly about things you can't control. I'm sorry to channel some Jensen Huang here, but that's just loser talk. You don't have to be a loser. You can choose to lean in and-... win. And win is very broadly defined as learning more, making more, contributing more, being part of more. And at the end of the day, what are your choices? You don't have a choice, mate. The future's coming whether you like it or not, so you might as well choose to be excited about it.

`1:21:55`

We don't know, and therefore, we should choose to have faith that it's gonna pan out. That is my best advice towards fighting anxiety, is that you have a choice, to a large degree, of how to lean. Do you wanna lean into PDoom? PDoom is gonna happen whether you lean into it or not. You don't have control.